The dispute over the Essequibo region has been going on for about 180 years. However, this issue seems to have garnered international attention a lot more in the last couple of weeks. President Nicholas Maduro, believes that the Essequibo region, whose land area is about 160,000 square kilometers, comprising 70% of land area of Guyana, rightfully belongs to Venezuela. He got Venezuelans to take part in a referendum on 3rd December 2023 to gauge the mood of his citizens over the Caracas’ territorial claims over the Essequibo region. 95% of voters voted in favor of Caracas taking control over the Essequibo. The referendum has been preceded by increased activity by the Venezuelan military. The Essequibo dispute dates back to the era of European colonization, but there are many more motives for its resurgence.
Economy
Even though domestic politics in Venezuela have stabilized in Venezuela since 2021, there is still an economic crisis going on marked by hyperinflation, starvation and increasing crime rates. U.S sanctions are also a major reason behind this crisis.
The dispute regarding the Essequibo region started grabbing headlines since 2015 after the discovery of oil in the Stabroek Block in Guyana’s EEZ by the American oil corporation Exxon Mobil. Guyana is known to have 11 billion barrels of oil making it the 17th largest reserve in the world. Its production capacity is expected to be 1 million barrels per day by 2027, which would easily bring it into the top 20 oil producers in the world. A couple of other oil super majors like Shell, Total, and Hess, have also invested heavily in Guyana which has pushed Guyana's GDP sky-high. However, it looks like Guyana may have been caught by the Dutch disease.
If Venezuela takes control of the entirety of Essequibo, almost all of the Stabroek Block will fall under Venezuela’s EEZ. Even if these American investors might leave, Venezuela’s Eastern friends might fill that void and help it rebuild its economy.
Elections
In November 2022, Presidents of Colombia, France and Argentina met in Paris and brokered a deal with Venezuela to conduct free and fair elections in 2024 and return release $3 billion frozen Venezuelan assets. The U.S declared that Chevron was ready to explore oil in Venezuela and in October 2023 suspended sanctions on oil, gas and gold. This move was heavily criticized by Republican senators but in Biden’s mind, this move was supposed to break the monopoly of the OPEC Plus cartel and hit another Russian pet-state.
But it clearly backfired. With over 2.3 million people casting ballots, right-wing candidate Maria Corina Machado secured 92% of the vote to emerge as the challenger in the 2024 elections. Thus, Maduro doesn’t believe he can win the elections if it is conducted impartially.
But, if he invades Guyana before the elections, he might be able to unite public opinion in his favor. Besides, the elections may be postponed if there is a continued armed conflict.
Besides the reverse of the ‘second pink tide’, which kicked off in 2018 bringing several left wingers to power, in El Salvador, Argentina and Peru have put left winger Presidents like Maduro in a tough spot dealing with the coming election.
Diversion Hotspot
Even though the concept of the ‘Western War Fatigue’ is a Russian propaganda narrative, they might very well be the ones who are engineering it. According to the WSJ, “America’s industrial base struggles to ramp up defense production while China’s churns out ever more weapons.” According to a report by the National Defense Industrial Strategy, the U.S. defense industrial base “does not possess the capacity, capability, responsiveness, or resilience required to satisfy the full range of military production needs at speed and scale,” and “This mismatch presents a growing strategic risk as the United States confronts the imperatives of supporting active combat operations…while deterring the larger and more technically advanced pacing threat looming in the Indo-Pacific,” the study says. The study also points out that the US can manufacture the best weapons in the world, but not quickly enough. The COVID pandemic exposed supply chain vulnerabilities, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Hamas attack on Israel highlighted new industrial demands and risks as the U.S. rushed to produce arms for Ukraine and Israel.
Since 2005, Venezuela has been a consistent arms buyer from Moscow, with deals exceeding $12 billion between 2007 and 2011. Joint military exercises began in 2008, including one involving a nuclear-powered cruiser and a pair of Tu-160 bombers showcasing Russia's first operations in Latin America since the Cold War. In 2018, a nuclear-capable bomber landed in Venezuela amid political turmoil. Russian support, including sending Wagner Group mercenaries, aided President Maduro against opposition leader Juan Guaido in 2019. In a 2023 meeting, Russian Security Council Secretary Patrushev lauded Venezuela's condemnation of the West and NATO's policy, reinforcing their alliance.
It is plausible that Russia is trying to involve U.S in multiple crises around different parts of the world in order to weaken their aid to Ukraine or put an end to their neo-imperialist agendas.
But certain questions still linger. Will Maduro invade Essequibo? What are the global implications of this dispute? How will the regional and global stakeholders respond? It remains to be seen.
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